Retail doesn’t seem to have capitulated yet. Here is a few signs: - When serious deleveraging occurs and margin calls hit, literally any asset gets sold to raise cash and meet these margin calls. Gold is a very institutionalized asset class and on Friday it showed some signs of weakness. Bitcoin is a retail-heavy asset class and it isn’t budging yet. - Several banks reported that on Thursday retail added a large amount of equities via ETF flows. That’s not what you do when you are deleveraging. - To my knowledge, massive contra indicators like CNBC going live with a special “Markets in Turmoil” episode or Brent Donnelly’s proven front-page contrarian covers haven’t happened yet More importantly, the buy-the-dip mentality will need a few more hits before cracking. Even after this drawdown the S&P 500 is still up 119% over the last 7 years, which is a massive compounded yearly rate well in excess of the standard 7-8% investors are used to in normal times. Recent surveys show investors growing accustomed with the fairytale assumption of a 10% yearly SPX return. If the drawdown extends to levels challenging these assumptions and threatening the excess wealth accumulation of 2019-2024, I expect retail to start deleveraging. Funnily enough, that might happen at the worst possible time and compound economic weakness through reduced consumer spending. Retail capitulation hasn’t happened yet, and that’s not a good thing.

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THE END: Of US Treasuries and to a lesser extent US stocks as the global reserve asset. Since Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971, US treasury debt outstanding grew by 85x. The US had to create the credit dollars necessary for the growth in the world economy. This was good for some Americans and bad for others. Trump was elected on average by those who believe they didn't share in the US "prosperity" of the last 50 years. If the US current account deficit is eliminated, then foreigners do not have dollars to buy bonds and stocks. If foreigners have to juice up their own nations' economies they will sell what they own, US bonds and stocks, to fund their nation-first policies. And even if Trump backtracks on the severity of the tariffs, no finance minister or world leader can risk Trump changing his mind again, and therefore things cannot return to the way they were. You must do what is best for your country. THE RETURN: Of gold as the neutral reserve asset. The dollar will still be the reserve currency, but nations will hold reserves in gold to settle global trade. Trump hinted at this because gold is tariff exempt! Gold must flow freely and cheaply in the new world monetary order. A lot of those who had it good are in the denial stage, and share a delusion that somehow things will return to "normal". Poppycock. For those who want to adapt to a return to pre-1971 trade relationships, buy gold, gold miners and $BTC. That's enough on tariff shit. My next essay will focus on why USDCNY is going to 10.00 bc there is no way that Xi Jinping will agree to change China in the ways necessary to placate Trump. This is the super bazooka $BTC needs to ascend rapidly towards $1 million.

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More and more stable coins building on #BNB (USDe) VanEck filed for #BNB ETF Being in no.1 on DEX volume. #ETH and $SOL dumped but not #BNB Trumps world liberty launched USD1 on BNB chain. Are you connecting the dots ?

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$BTC hodlers need to learn to love tariffs, maybe we finally broke the correlation with Nasdaq, and can move onto the purest form of a fiat liquidity smoke alarm.

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Your top swaps this week on MetaMask: $ONDO - @OndoFinance $SPX - @spx6900 $PEPE - @pepecoineth $LINK - @chainlink $HEX - @HEXcrypto 🦊

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stocks are down 6% gold is down 3% pepe is up 6% fartcoin is up 15% crypto is winning the trade war bro

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Exciting news! @PayPal is expanding our U.S. cryptocurrency service by adding Chainlink (LINK) and Solana (SOL). 🔵 Chainlink (LINK) enables advanced smart contracts by connecting real-world data to the blockchain. 🔵 Solana (SOL) is known for its fast transaction speeds, supporting a vibrant ecosystem of decentralized applications. You can now buy, hold, sell, and transfer LINK and SOL in your PayPal and @Venmo wallets.

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The future of payments is here! We're expanding our U.S. crypto service with Chainlink (LINK) & Solana (SOL). Buy, hold, sell, & transfer directly in your PayPal and @Venmo wallets. More info:

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Hey @grok please choose one of my followers who comments on this post to win $500 Please select the winner after 24 hours has passed from the time of this post. The winner can have the $500 in $BTC $KAS $SOL or $ETH This is legit, did the same yesterday.

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With gemini 2.5 pro pricing and results, Google has fixed the biggest unknown/weakest link in their lineup and we can now confirm that @GoogleDeepMind completely owns the pareto frontier down to 1220 elo (at least until o4-mini and gpt5?)

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The S&P 500, $SPY $SPX, has erased all its gains. It is now trading where it was in August.

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